Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

[michelle88]

Lot's of tennis to be played and maybe an unlikely scenario, but it would be glorious to see Roger snatch the #1 ranking right from under TFA's nose

[skumars]

I'd love that -- and if it comes, it would be well earned.  But like you said, LOTS of tennis to be played.

[Cromar]

(Posted in the 'Cincinnati 2017' Tournament thread as well)

I had this chart ready to go before Roger's unfortunate announcement, so here it is anyway, albeit updated, and looking awfully bare!  I thought Montreal was the worst I had seen, but no, it can get even 'baderer'!!    

Six withdrawals out of the top 10... unreal!    I am more than hoping that most will recover in time for the US Open (except for Djoko and Stan, of course, who are out for the season).


Cincinnati 2017 'Round-by-Round Ranking Points' Chart

The chart is sorted by the 'Live Rankings' at the start of the tournament (after deduction of the points to defend from Cincy 2016). Makes it easier to follow the points progression.

[Tommymas1]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.tennisworldusa.org/news_amp/news/Rafael_Nadal/46527/the-race-to-no-1-between-nadal-and-federer-scenarios-at-the-us-open/

[leafy1]

Before today Roger and Nadal were within a few points of each other. After becoming a finalist in Montreal Rogers points did not go up as I expected they would. In Indian Wells Nadal lost in the quarters yet earned 500 points for the loss which launched him to number one. Could someone please explain how that happened? thanks

[Cromar]

Leafy - If you look at the Montreal and Cincy charts above, you will see that before Montreal, Nadal was 920 points ahead of Roger.

Roger had 6545 points before Montreal and finished the tournament with 7145, having gained 600 points for the Final.

Nadal, on the other hand, had 7465 points before Montreal and gained 90 points there (R3), to finish with 7555 points. In Cincy, he gained 180 points (QF), but having 90 points to defend from 2016, his net gained for Cincy was only 90 points, giving him a total of 7645 points (7555 +90).

The reason Nadal moved to No 1 after Cincy is because Murray didn't play and lost his 600 points from 2016, going down from 7750 to 7150 points, thus falling behind Nadal.

This will be their status at the start of the US Open:

- Nadal: 7645 points -180 to defend = 7465 points
- Murray: 7150 points -360 to defend = 6790 points
- Roger: 7145 points (nothing to defend)

So, Roger will effectively start the US Open 320 points behind Nadal and 355 points ahead of Murray.  

All is good!  

As to what it will take for Roger to take over the No 1 after the US Open... you can check the article posted by Tommymas1 just above, although I haven't verified the validity of the scenarios presented in that article (TennisWorldUSA is not always the most reliable source, but hopefully they got it right).

[Márcia]

cromar, the one and only valid scenario - for me - is your round-by-round chart, that I wait for with joy.

[Cromar]

:lol!:  It's coming!....

[leafy1]

thank you for explaining that to me

[Tommymas1]

A little discussed point here..... had Roger not withdrew from Cincy until after the first round (gets a bye and 10 points for the first round), he would be the 2nd seed at the US Open because he would be 5 points ahead of Murray and No. 2 this week. Hope it doesn't affect him on the draw.

[Steerpike60]

A little discussed point here..... had Roger not withdrew from Cincy until after the first round (gets a bye and 10 points for the first round), he would be the 2nd seed at the US Open because he would be 5 points ahead of Murray and No. 2 this week.  Hope it doesn't affect him on the draw.

Yeah, I had thought of that too, but obviously Roger didn't feel it was worth it for his back.  And what scenario would you consider as "affecting him in the draw"?  Being drawn in Rafa's half so they would potentially meet in the SFs versus the Fs?  That's the only real difference I can see.

[Rufus1]

A little discussed point here..... had Roger not withdrew from Cincy until after the first round (gets a bye and 10 points for the first round), he would be the 2nd seed at the US Open because he would be 5 points ahead of Murray and No. 2 this week.  Hope it doesn't affect him on the draw.

For being the fittest he could be in NY, he needed to be out of Cincy - His first round is actually the second round of the tournament - Wednesday start.  He would have had to be in Cincy, do pre-tournament press, do practise, be in public eye etc until pulling out AFTER playing the match - pull out before that match and he still gets 0.  Not worth it.

He went to Cincy on the Sunday night, saw his family etc, went into the TD and gave his statement Monday morning personally, then departed.  Had to do none of the other stuff and could get on to the rehab.  If he woke up realizing that rehab was needed then it served no purpose to stay at the tournament and virtually waste 3 days, energy and potentially hurting it further because he would have had to play a minimum of one match to gain that 10 points - loss in 2nd round.

[Cromar]

Who will be No 1 after the USO  The answer is not so simple...

But here are the possible scenarios by ATP Media Info:

With @RafaelNadal and @RogerFederer on the same side of #USOpen draw, see scenarios below for No. 1 in Emirates #ATP Rankings on Sept. 11. pic.twitter.com/U9C9nGNPOd

— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) August 25, 2017

[Cromar]

(Same posted in the US Open 2017 tournament thread)

Here is the "Round-by-Round Chart" for the US Open 2017, so you may follow the progress of the top players throughout the tournament.

The chart is sorted by the 'Live Ranking' points, that is the current ATP Ranking points -minus the points to defend from last year. Note that for Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori, who are out for the rest of the season, I used the points they will have at the end of the year to get a more realistic view of where they would be in the rankings with those points.

With the withdrawal of Murray, Roger is now guaranteed to be ranked No 2 after the US Open, if not No 1!  8)

The race for No 1 is on between Roger and Nadal. Roger will be No 1 if he is the Champion or Finalist, or if he gets to the SF and Nadal doesn't, or if Roger reaches the QF and Nadal loses in the first round.

So, if Roger doesn't at least reach the QF, Nadal will remain No 1 (regardless of his result), and if they meet in the SF, the winner of that match will be the future No 1, quite obviously.

[striker]

So I guess Roger has no chance to be no1 by years end...even with tournies coming up & him making quarters at USO. I cannot understand charts!! Thank you .

[StrongerThanAll]

World Tour Finals is worth alot of points. Put it this way, I'd still think he can chase #1 but Delpo HAS to beat Nadal tomorrow. and that's that.

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