Analysis of Roger's Game
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MaxUS
avasbar
Cromar
Rufus1
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Analysis of Roger's Game
Here is a thread to consolidate general discussion around Roger's game, so that it doesn't get lost within discussion of specific matches and tournaments.
To start the thread, here is an article written following Roger's match against Paire in Dubai, 2017 - his first match following that championship win against Nadal in Melbourne!!
It takes as its thesis that the winning strategy used against Nadal, that of taking the ball very early, may be a permanent strategy going forward and providing examples in the Paire match, short as it was. It is not a difficult, technical article to read, rather one to get the discussion started.
http://deadspin.com/roger-federer-is-just-making-stuff-up-now-1792800886
Title: Roger Federer Is Just Making Stuff Up Now
Author: Giri Nathan
Lead paragraph/thesis
To the moderators/web designer: This is NOT news and probably shouldn't be located within Roger's News but I had no idea how to start a new topic within Roger Space. Please move to a more appropriate place, should that be appropriate.
To start the thread, here is an article written following Roger's match against Paire in Dubai, 2017 - his first match following that championship win against Nadal in Melbourne!!
It takes as its thesis that the winning strategy used against Nadal, that of taking the ball very early, may be a permanent strategy going forward and providing examples in the Paire match, short as it was. It is not a difficult, technical article to read, rather one to get the discussion started.
http://deadspin.com/roger-federer-is-just-making-stuff-up-now-1792800886
Title: Roger Federer Is Just Making Stuff Up Now
Author: Giri Nathan
Lead paragraph/thesis
Roger Federer is 35 and, increasingly, plays like he has no time to waste. That manifests in a very literal way: He barely waits for the ball to hit the ground
To the moderators/web designer: This is NOT news and probably shouldn't be located within Roger's News but I had no idea how to start a new topic within Roger Space. Please move to a more appropriate place, should that be appropriate.
Rufus1- Posts : 527
Join date : 2017-02-17
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I am not so much into technical stuff, usually, but I found this analysis quite interesting...
Science! Shows That Roger Federer's Backhand In Fact Defeated Rafael Nadal
Giri Nathan - 1/31/17
Michael Dodge/Getty
Yesterday we argued that Federer’s unusually strong backhand anchored his Australian Open win over Rafael Nadal, and today we found a startling statistical basis for that claim. It comes courtesy of the always helpful Jeff Sackmann at TennisAbstract. Relative to other sports, tennis remains fairly data-poor, but Sackmann’s hacking away at the problem with his Match Charting Project, which rallies volunteers to log tennis matches shot-by-shot, producing a granular picture of a sport usually painted in simplistic narrative strokes.
Sackmann used those logs to home-brew a stat he calls backhand potency (BHP), meant to gauge the efficacy of that particular stroke over the course of a match by assigning values to each of the specific outcomes it produces. Here’s the very reasonable methodology:
BHP approximates the number of points whose outcomes were affected by the backhand: add one point for a winner or an opponent’s forced error, subtract one for an unforced error, add a half-point for a backhand that set up a winner or opponent’s error on the following shot, and subtract a half-point for a backhand that set up a winning shot from the opponent. Divide by the total number of backhands, multiply by 100*, and the result is net effect of each player’s backhand. Using shot-by-shot data from over 1,400 men’s matches logged by the Match Charting Project, we can calculate BHP for dozens of active players and many former stars.
There’s a lot to be gleaned here. For one, despite worldwide slobbering over its aesthetic perfection, Fed’s backhand posts only a +0.2 figure over his career; he does most of the damage with his serve and forehand. And as any eye test would confirm, Nadal’s topspin has a way of harassing that backhand and turning it into a liability. Sackmann isolated the Grand Slam meetings between these two players and listed Federer’s BHP in each case:
via TennisAbstract
You’ll note that there’s only one time his backhand ever produced positive outcomes overall, and that was this Sunday, when he posted an anomalous +7.8 figure.
Among the other good tidbits here: my favorite backhand on tour, Kei Nishikori’s smooth and accurate two-hander, boasts the highest BHP among top players at +3.6. The slappy backhand of Jack Sock, who makes a living on his mortar of a Western forehand, earns a sad BHP of -6.6. Looking to the past, Andre Agassi, considered a master of the shot, posted a +5.0 over his career.
Tennis is a fluid sport, yielding only a handful of sturdy analytic distinctions (forehand/backhand, crosscourt/down-the-line, groundstroke/volley), and even those can turn murky. The box score stats flashed onscreen during a match tell a reductive story, and bake in-the-moment judgment calls deeply into their core (are you sure that error was unforced? Were you reading the spin?). But thanks to some enterprising volunteers, we’re finally making some headway—you can support Sackmann’s work here.
Deadspin.com
Cromar- Posts : 6560
Join date : 2017-01-24
Location : Montreal, Canada
The Neo- Backhand
Talking about the BH-
Could someone please explain the term 'going over his bh'.
I would have thought that meant putting a lot of topspin on it, if the racquet is over it, but it seems to mean simply not slicing it. But often times, he hits it with a straight racquet (by which I mean 90 degrees to the ball) which I understand is what is meant by hitting it flat? ie no spin - which was what they were all talking and raving about in Aussie. So I'm confused by the term 'hitting over it ' and what is different about that then, to talking about hitting through the ball. #Allofamuddle
Could someone please explain the term 'going over his bh'.
I would have thought that meant putting a lot of topspin on it, if the racquet is over it, but it seems to mean simply not slicing it. But often times, he hits it with a straight racquet (by which I mean 90 degrees to the ball) which I understand is what is meant by hitting it flat? ie no spin - which was what they were all talking and raving about in Aussie. So I'm confused by the term 'hitting over it ' and what is different about that then, to talking about hitting through the ball. #Allofamuddle
avasbar- Posts : 834
Join date : 2017-01-26
Location : OnTheRoadtoEverywhere
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
Evolution of Tennis: Slice vs. Topspinavasbar wrote:Could someone please explain the term 'going over his bh'.
I found this article that gives some information and has links to YouTube examples of the difference between slice and topspin. The examples do little justice to what we're seeing from Roger and the other OHBHBoys, but the slow-motion video allows you to see in detail what the player is doing with the racket head at the point of contact.
You can see the racket "going over" the ball at the point of contact on the Topspin Backhand. Unfortunately, they picked a lefty two-handed BH for the Topspin example.
MaxUS- Posts : 67
Join date : 2017-02-08
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
Thank you MaxUS.
I am clear on slice vs topspin.
As I said
"I would have thought that meant putting a lot of topspin on it, if the racquet is over it, but it seems to mean simply not slicing it. "
What has confused me is the talking so much about his flat bhs, while simultaneously talking about how he is coming over the ball.
Obviously, he could be doing both (but not at the same time )
I am clear on slice vs topspin.
As I said
"I would have thought that meant putting a lot of topspin on it, if the racquet is over it, but it seems to mean simply not slicing it. "
What has confused me is the talking so much about his flat bhs, while simultaneously talking about how he is coming over the ball.
Obviously, he could be doing both (but not at the same time )
avasbar- Posts : 834
Join date : 2017-01-26
Location : OnTheRoadtoEverywhere
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I found this about the backswing of Roger, in connection with the SABR and the shortening of points in general.
http://www.eurosport.com/tennis/federer-wielding-sabr-with-devastating-effect_sto6231051/story.shtml
I think this could be an explanation why people like DelPo say, Roger is faster than before (Don't have the source anymore).
Which is of course not the case, not at all. He moves no longer with the explosiveness he had when he was much younger. Watch matches of 2006 and it is clear to see.
What he has now is a ton of experience and the perfection of "economic" movement.
http://www.eurosport.com/tennis/federer-wielding-sabr-with-devastating-effect_sto6231051/story.shtml
I think this could be an explanation why people like DelPo say, Roger is faster than before (Don't have the source anymore).
Which is of course not the case, not at all. He moves no longer with the explosiveness he had when he was much younger. Watch matches of 2006 and it is clear to see.
What he has now is a ton of experience and the perfection of "economic" movement.
Kop8zky- Posts : 1457
Join date : 2017-02-04
Location : Schweiz
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
^^^
Excellent analysis, it seems to me. And so clear in the explanation that I can "see" what he is talking about. Thanks, Kopetzky.
Excellent analysis, it seems to me. And so clear in the explanation that I can "see" what he is talking about. Thanks, Kopetzky.
Márcia- Posts : 4980
Join date : 2017-01-26
Location : Rio de Janeiro
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
This is NOT an analysis of Roger's game per se, rather an analysis of the type of game which he wishes to play. In particular as it relates to W, and the grass, but not necessarily only there. It looks at who wins matches vs who wins the rallies of various lengths - and S&V is as effective, %wise as it was before. Misconceptions arise because what people remember, more often, were the long points - but these are few and far between - In general they probably won't determine a match.
Craig O'Shannessy, the ATP stats guru who writes the brain game on occasion, provides the stats and analysis and concludes by saying
Title: Early attack still pays dividends at Wimbledon
Author: Simon Cambers
This is a Reuters article which I found at
http://in.reuters.com/article/tennis-wimbledon-attack-idINKBN19I0B3
Craig O'Shannessy, the ATP stats guru who writes the brain game on occasion, provides the stats and analysis and concludes by saying
"When we go to the practice court, we spend most of our time on the back end of the point, ball after ball after ball. We just got it wrong.
"The practice court is completely broken and doesn't mirror where winning happens in a match."
Title: Early attack still pays dividends at Wimbledon
Author: Simon Cambers
This is a Reuters article which I found at
http://in.reuters.com/article/tennis-wimbledon-attack-idINKBN19I0B3
Rufus1- Posts : 527
Join date : 2017-02-17
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I wonder if the players or their coaches read Craig.
Grateful to him for that Dustin Brown win - I saw it live too - it was glorious. I wish Dusty could win more matches/titles.
Grateful to him for that Dustin Brown win - I saw it live too - it was glorious. I wish Dusty could win more matches/titles.
avasbar- Posts : 834
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Location : OnTheRoadtoEverywhere
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
^^^
Thanks for the article. And yes, why players don't read it? Don't know it better?
Thanks for the article. And yes, why players don't read it? Don't know it better?
Márcia- Posts : 4980
Join date : 2017-01-26
Location : Rio de Janeiro
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I find this logic to be a bit suspect:
It's an interesting article, nonetheless, especially in light of what Roger has been able to accomplish this year on hard courts. He's demonstrated that strong aggressive first-strike tennis is difficult to beat even on slowish hard-courts. On grass, Haas is old school and showed that he has the tools to challenge this style of play when Roger is working his way into a tournament, but I see Stuttgart mostly as a turn of bad luck more than anything. Finally acclimating to the larger racket head has allowed Roger to expose the level, perhaps, of overcompensation that took place in response to the homogenization of speed among the various surfaces.
It's been my understanding that the grass at Halle is more akin to what Wimbledon was rather than what it is now which is closer to what exists at Queen's (as someone recently noted the patterns of wear at the two tournaments is obviously different). I'll concede, however, that I'm not completely sure that this is still the case. We'll have to wait till Wimbledon to see what Roger is able to come up with in regards to his commitment to play more aggressively on all surfaces. I look forward to seeing how effectively Roger can incorporate S&V to complement his bread and butter one-two serve-forehand combo.
There's a big difference between 67% of 10 S&V attempts (3-4 points lost on serve) and 67% of 100 S&V attempts (33 points lost on serve). The margins in the matches played on the various slower surfaces, as they exist today, cannot support employing the strategy as liberally as it was in the past.Serve and volley is seen as a dying art, but O'Shannessy said the statistics show that it remains as effective as ever.
"There is absolutely no truth to the rumour or myth that serving and volleying doesn't work anymore," he told Reuters. "The win percentage remains the same whether you do it a lot or a little."
It's an interesting article, nonetheless, especially in light of what Roger has been able to accomplish this year on hard courts. He's demonstrated that strong aggressive first-strike tennis is difficult to beat even on slowish hard-courts. On grass, Haas is old school and showed that he has the tools to challenge this style of play when Roger is working his way into a tournament, but I see Stuttgart mostly as a turn of bad luck more than anything. Finally acclimating to the larger racket head has allowed Roger to expose the level, perhaps, of overcompensation that took place in response to the homogenization of speed among the various surfaces.
It's been my understanding that the grass at Halle is more akin to what Wimbledon was rather than what it is now which is closer to what exists at Queen's (as someone recently noted the patterns of wear at the two tournaments is obviously different). I'll concede, however, that I'm not completely sure that this is still the case. We'll have to wait till Wimbledon to see what Roger is able to come up with in regards to his commitment to play more aggressively on all surfaces. I look forward to seeing how effectively Roger can incorporate S&V to complement his bread and butter one-two serve-forehand combo.
MaxUS- Posts : 67
Join date : 2017-02-08
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I found an article in the NZZ (a serious Swiss newspaper) and the author writes:
Vor dem Final gegen Cilic hat Federer gesagt: «Ich bin noch immer auf der Suche nach dem perfekten Match. Ich habe ihn noch nicht gespielt. Das lässt mich weiter trainieren, lässt mich weiter versuchen, mich zu verbessern.» Roger Federer ist unvergleichlich. Er lebt nach seinen eigenen Massstäben.
Translation:
Before the final match against Cilic Federer said: "I am still in the search of the perfect match. I did not play it so far. That's why I keep on training, keep on trying to improve". Roger Federer is incomparable. He sets his own benchmarks.
I never heard Roger saying something like this. If he really did - what a motivation - I am impressed. But then - what's new?? 8)
https://www.nzz.ch/sport/tennis/wimbledon-rekordsieger-federer-unvergleichlich-ld.1306363
Vor dem Final gegen Cilic hat Federer gesagt: «Ich bin noch immer auf der Suche nach dem perfekten Match. Ich habe ihn noch nicht gespielt. Das lässt mich weiter trainieren, lässt mich weiter versuchen, mich zu verbessern.» Roger Federer ist unvergleichlich. Er lebt nach seinen eigenen Massstäben.
Translation:
Before the final match against Cilic Federer said: "I am still in the search of the perfect match. I did not play it so far. That's why I keep on training, keep on trying to improve". Roger Federer is incomparable. He sets his own benchmarks.
I never heard Roger saying something like this. If he really did - what a motivation - I am impressed. But then - what's new?? 8)
https://www.nzz.ch/sport/tennis/wimbledon-rekordsieger-federer-unvergleichlich-ld.1306363
Kop8zky- Posts : 1457
Join date : 2017-02-04
Location : Schweiz
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
I believe that in the profiles from his youth it's been mentioned that his quest for the Perfect Match was responsible for some of his...err...moodiness(?) during/after matches. After settling down, he's managed to change his perspective enough to allow him to succeed and dominate, I guess.Kop8zky wrote:I never heard Roger saying something like this. If he really did - what a motivation - I am impressed. But then - what's new?? 8)
This quote, IMO, is significant. He knows that usually when he opens up about things like this, it becomes fodder for the oceans of press that he'll be facing in the coming weeks. I think it means that he's comfortable enough with his game that he will entertain questions about what I imagine has remained his lifelong quest; despite the calm demeanor he has been able to cultivate into it's own kind of weapon on the court. Admittedly, I'm reading a lot into it, but I think it could be a sign that he believes he's got the tools to pursue that elusive goal with what he's developed, of necessity, in the last few years in taking his game to even greater heights. By changing rackets to a size closer to what his rivals from Murray's generation are using, he's had basically to adopt the mentality of a Junior at a time when he's in the autumn of his career, an unbelievable feat.
As for the elusive Perfect Match, the couple of spankings to Berdych (and del Potro?) at the Australian Open play-wise, and the M. Zarev Double Bagel on grass for scoreline, immediately come to mind as being as close to perfection as is humanly possible. Honestly, I don't remember the Zarev match, I only mention it because Zarev's game seems to be built on and for grass so a double-bagel would suggest that Roger just dismantled it mercilessly (which is not at all his usual MO, and only really happens when Roger is keyed into a match at the highest level of concentration).
Thanks, Kop8zky, for the translation. Even if I'm inferring too much, one thing is clear: Roger's not done yet; he's still on the prowl, hunting for something special by his own measure. I can't wait to see what he has in store.
MaxUS- Posts : 67
Join date : 2017-02-08
Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
And what about the SF vs Andy Murray 2015 Wimby?
avasbar- Posts : 834
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Re: Analysis of Roger's Game
Going back even further...AO 07 SF vs Roddick? That match was and still is my tennis NIRVANA!
lavender- Posts : 5
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