Awards, Records & Stats

On Serve, Federer Slams The Door Better Than Anyone


  Craig O'Shannessy - September 27, 2017

40/30 seems like a very competitive point score, with the returner already capturing two points and being just three points from breaking serve.

But don’t be fooled: It’s still one-way traffic for the server.

Even though the returner has won 40 per cent (two of five) of the points played so far in the game, his chance of breaking serve is still less than 10 per cent.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings shows that, since the start of the 2015 season, they have held serve from 40/30 92.7 per cent (6331/6826) of the time.

The player who has been the toughest to break when leading 40/30 on serve is Roger Federer, who has held a dominant 95.4 per cent (535/561) of the time from this seemingly competitive point score.

Current Top 10: Holding from 40/30 since the start of the 2015 season

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Ranking	Player	40/30 Points Won	Total 40/30 Points	Hold Percentage
1	Roger Federer	535	561	95.4%
2	Marin Cilic	596	630	94.6%
3	Novak Djokovic	697	742	93.9%
4	Andy Murray	703	756	93.0%
5	Alexander Zverev	605	653	92.6%
6	Rafael Nadal	634	686	92.4%
7	Stan Wawrinka	686	743	92.3%
8	Dominic Thiem	719	780	92.2%
9	Grigor Dimitrov	611	666	91.7%
10	Pablo Carreno Busta	545	609	89.5%
	TOTAL / AVERAGE	6331	6826	92.7%

Federer: Past Three Seasons Holding From 40/30
· 2017 = 96.3% (157/163)
· 2016 = 95.5% (107/112)
· 2015 = 94.7% (271/286)

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Even worse news for his opponents: Federer has slightly improved in this specific category during the past three seasons. This year, he's led 40/30 during 163 service games and has lost only six of those games. Opponents must feel like they are getting closer to capturing Federer’s serve, but in reality, they are farther away from breaking than they were at 0/0.

Infosys Nia Data shows that in 2017 Federer is holding serve 91 per cent of the time, but at 40/30, he is holding 96.3 per cent (157/163) of the time. The returner winning two points in the service game doesn’t trump the fact that Federer needs just one more point to hold. When the Swiss star has surged ahead 40/15 this season, his win percentage has elevated to a near-perfect 99.1 per cent (229/231).

Marin Cilic is the second best performer of current Top 10 players, holding serve from 40/30 94.6 per cent (596/630) of the time since the beginning of the 2015 season. Former World No. 1s Novak Djokovic (93.9 per cent) and Andy Murray (93 per cent) are third and fourth on the list, being the only other players to reach the 93 per cent mark.

Next are #NextGenATP German Alexander Zverev (92.6 per cent) and World No. 1 Rafael Nadal (92.4 per cent). Rounding out the Top 10 in this category include Stan Wawrinka (92.3 per cent), Dominic Thiem (92.2 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (91.7 per cent) and Pablo Carreno Busta (89.5 per cent).

Practice Court

A fun practice drill for players at all levels of the game to complement this fascinating data would be to play a set where the server begins the game at 40/30. If the server drops serve, he instantly loses the set. The focus is on the business end of the game, with elevated pressure as fewer points are required to hold and break serve. It’s a fun way to work a five-setter into your afternoon on court.