Status Graph - Pre-Wimbledon 2017

by **Cromar** Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:22 pm

Here is the promised graph: ATP Ranking Points Projection prior Wimbledon 2017

A pretty loaded graph! 8) But let me explain...

First, it covers 18 players, a lot for a graph of this kind, but they are so close to each other that any one of them could potentially have an impact on Roger's rankings.

Secondly, in order to get a feel of Roger's position for Wimby seeding, the numbers included in this graph cover the period 'Pre-Wimbledon', namely from now until the tournament prior to Wimbledon. (e.g. Wimbledon 2016 points to defend are not included in those numbers).

There are six separate series of numbers (lines of cones):

Yellow: Points to defend till prior to Wimby (post Halle/Queen's).
Red: Current RACE - Not so important here, but looks good for Roger!
Pale purple: Minimum points - Points they will have if they don't play or win anything until Wimby. (Points to defend deducted)
Purple: Current Ranking (Just as an indicator)
Light green: Limited maximum points, I call it - Points they will have if they win every tournament they play, except without any win at Masters (max. 600 points credit), and max. QF at RG. Only a few can get those top results, so this give us an idea what results the majority of this gang can hope for.
Green: Maximum points - Points they will have if they win every tournament they play (no limitation).

I have drawn two lines to show where Roger would fit against the others:

Purple cone: If he doesn't play RG (or loses his first match!), but makes the SF in both Stuttgart and Halle (essentially just defending his 2016 points: Rome 90, Stuttgart 90, Halle 180).
Light green cone: If he reaches the QF at RG and wins both Stuttgart and Halle.
Evidently, if he wins all three, we would be laughing (no line needed!)

As far as making pronostics about Roger's potential ranking prior Wimby?... I will let you chew this graph and provide your own views and forecast! Very Happy

I find the field a little too crowded to venture in there myself ! Razz

Enjoy!

by **Cromar** Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:27 am

That's good news!... Not a surprise, but nice to hear it, none-the-less!

ATP understandably already using Roger Federer in promotion for the ATP Finals. pic.twitter.com/XrjWPjqFzf
— Stuart Fraser (@stu_fraser)
April 4, 2017

by **Cromar** Thu May 18, 2017 10:03 pm

ATP Rankings and RACE Status as of last Monday, May 15 2017, after Madrid:

It's no surprise that after his sweep of titles on clay, Nadal has taken over the top position in the RACE! Can't be true

Roger also lost his fourth position in the Rankings and is now No 5, behind Nadal.

I will post a graph later on to analyse what are the chances for Roger to maintain his current ranking until Wimbledon.

by striker Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:03 pm

Someone told me that with Novaks loss Nadal moves to no2. Can that happen?. Roger will be "where" when Wimby is here. Thanks to anyone who knows.

by **Cromar** Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:56 am

Yes, Striker, Nadal is now Nr 2 and Djokovic has moved down to Nr 4, behind Stan, as he lost 1640 points by not being able to defend his title at RG. Roger is still ranked Nr 5, but there is a good chance that he may get a better seeding at Wimbledon... See my next post.

by **Cromar** Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:03 am

The graph below is a projection of the minimum and maximum points, including the Wimbledon Grass bonus, for the top 12 players prior to Wimbledon (post Halle/Queens). Those are the numbers that would be used to determine the seeding at Wimbledon.

The grass bonus is calculated based on previous grass court results over the past two years, plus the upcoming pre-Wimby grass courts tournaments, namely Stuttgart/s'Hertogenbosch, this week, and Halle/Queen's next week. The points earned at these tournament will effectively count double, as in addition to being added to their rankings points, 100% of these results will also be added to their Grass bonus.

Roger's bonus from past tournaments comes to 1620 points. That's quite significant and should help him secure a better seeding at Wimbledon. Only Murray has a higher bonus (2540), while Djokovic's bonus is 1590.

The dark green bars in the graph indicate the points (including the grass bonus) the players would have should they reach the SF at each of the tournaments they are scheduled to play in the next two weeks. The light green part at the top of the bars shows the additional points they would acquire (including grass bonus points) should they win those tournaments. Djokovic is the only top-12 player not scheduled to play any pre-Wimby tournament (although there was some rumors he may ask for a WC?, but haven't hear any confirmation).

From the graph you can see that Roger is in a good position to get a better seeding than his current Nr 5 position. He actually has a very real chance to be seeded Nr 4, or better.

In fact, if Roger wins both Stuttgart and Halle, he could be seeded # 3, or even # 2 if Nadal doesn't reach the Final at Queen's. Murray will be #1 no matter what, and Nadal will most likely be #2 (except for the situation I just mentioned), while the third and fourth seed positions will be fought out between Stan, Djokovic and Roger. So, basically Roger just needs to stay ahead (pointwise) of either Stan or Djokovic to secure the #4 seed.

Click image to view full size

by RogerNo.1 Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:48 pm

I'm no expert in the rankings field. I was wondering what the chances are of Roger being seeding in the top 4 at Wimbledon, seeing as he just lost in the 1st round of Stuttgart. If he were to win Halle, would the extra points from the last two years move him up?

by **Cromar** Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:10 am

This is a copy of what I posted in the Stuttgart topic, in answer to a similar question:

Well, this is the scoop if my calculations for the grass bonus are correct...

Roger now has 6385 points (with the bonus). If he wins Halle, he will add 1000 points (500 for Rankings and 500 for the bonus) giving him a maximum total of 7385 points for seeding purposes. And even though Nadal and Djokovic are not playing before Wimbledon, they already have 7473 and 7395 points respectively, which is more than what Roger can hope for, even if he wins Halle.

So, seeing that Murray will be the #1 seed, the best Roger can hope for is #4 or #5, depending on what Stan does at Queen's. With the bonus, Stan has 6490 points at present, which is 105 points more than Roger. So, for Roger to grab the #4 seed, he will need to stay a step ahead of Stan: If Stan reach the QF at Queen's, Roger would need to get to at least the SF in Halle, or if Stan is in the SF, then Roger would need to be in the Final. This also means that if Stan wins Queen's, Roger would be seeded #5, even if HE wins Halle. On the other hand, if Roger wins Halle and Stan doesn't wins Queen's, then Roger would be #4.

by **Cromar** Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:16 am

Here is the 'Round-by-Round' Chart and Graph for Halle - London Queen's 2017, including Wimbledon seeding.

I have changed the format of the chart, this time, to add the corresponding Seeding points for Wimbledon, and the Graph shows the Seeding points (not Ranking points), as I think that the Wimbledon seeding is of a greater interest at this time than the ATP Rankings.

The ranking is pretty straight forward and Roger will remain No 5, no matter what. No change at the top either.

So much cannot be said for the Wimbledon seeding. It's a war out there! Smile

Roger could be seeded anywhere from # 3 to # 6.
Just to illustrate how close things are, consider these numbers:

Stan R2: 6580 - Raonic W: 6575 - Roger QF: 6565 ... Just 15 points apart!!
or
Djokovic 7395 - Roger W: 7385 ... Short by 10 points! Arghhh... why didn't he win that match in Stuttgart!

So, I hope that the chart will help sort things out somewhat and that I didn't get you too confused with my notes! 8)

Here is a copy of my notes from the chart:

RANKINGS
Roger will remain N˚5 after Halle, no matter what. Even if Raonic N˚6 wins Queen's, he cannot pass Roger, and Roger cannot pass Djokovic.
And seeing that the N˚2 and N˚4 are not playing, there will be no movement in the top five.
The same cannot be said for those ranked N˚ 6 and below, seeing how close some are in the rankings. With 500 points up for grab, there are many opportunities for movements within that group.

WIMBLEDON SEEDING
For most, this week results will determine their final seeding at Wimbledon, except for Murray who will be # 1, no matter what.
- Djokovic will be # 2 and Nadal # 3 if both Stan and Roger don't win Queen's and Halle respectively.
- If Stan wins Queen's, he will be # 2 and Djokovic # 3, and if Roger also wins Halle, he would then be # 4 and Nadal # 5.
- If Roger wins Halle and Stan doesn't win Queen's, then it will be Djokovic # 2, Roger # 3, Nadal # 4 and Stan # 5.
- If both don't win, Roger and Stan will be vying for the 4th and 5th position, unless Raonic comes in and spoils the cards by winning Queen's and Roger doesn't reach the SF. Roger could be # 6 then, unless Stan... (see red lines on the Seeding chart for critical numbers).

Click for full size version.

by Rufus1 Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:09 pm

With Milos' and Stan's losses in their first rounds, it is now up to Roger. He doesn't have to rely on anybody else to determine his W seed.

Using the wonderful charts above, if Roger makes it to the quarters at Halle (wins two matches), he overtakes Stan for 4th seed - That second round match is the critical match!!!

Roger cannot overtake Djokovic for the #2 seed, the other critical point. The top 2 seeds are now set - Murray and Djokovic. And Nadal will also be either #3 or #4.

If Roger wins the tournament, he gets the #3 seed with Nadal #4. But that matters not for purposes of the W draw. They will be on opposite sides of the draw and cannot meet before the final.

So the most important thing, for W seeding, is to get to the quarters. That requires a win today, of-course, but a bit more tricky would be against M Zverev, in the round of 16, who has been having a good grass court season to date.

by avasbar Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:10 pm

Good news to read that Rog could get ahead of Nadal and not sure whether the prospect of another Fedal Final its good or not ! But at least he wont have to deal with him early. Hopefully not at all but I think Rafa is very dangerous this year and past early exits mean nothing this year - he's back to 2010 form but playing even better.

by Steerpike60 Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:51 pm

avasbar wrote:Good news to read that Rog could get ahead of Nadal and not sure whether the prospect of another Fedal Final its good or not ! But at least he wont have to deal with him early. Hopefully not at all but I think Rafa is very dangerous this year and past early exits mean nothing this year - he's back to 2010 form but playing even better.

Yeah he could get the #3 seed but as pointed out, it makes no difference whether Roger/Rafa are #3 or #4 as far as the draw is concerned. They will be on opposite sides of the draw no matter what. Let's just hope Roger wins tomorrow so he's at least #4.

Despite Roger's winning ways against Nadal this year, I'll never look forward to them playing. So, if Rafa loses early, that's fine by me.

by StrongerThanAll Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:30 pm

I think the Roger of the beginning of the season would wipe the floor with Nadal at Wimbledon but anyways... Nadal being on the other side of the draw I think he wouldn't have to deal with him. Nadal could go further than previous years but finals is pushing it.

by **Cromar** Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:40 pm

Interesting observation... But I know which of the Goat I would like to see there! Wink Gif

The year-end #1 was either #1or2 in the Race after Roland Garros every year since 2013 #Fedal are back. Go GOATS @rogerfederer @RafaelNadal! pic.twitter.com/QB9adYM35i
— MathiasWegmueller (@MatuWegmueller) June 12, 2017

by **Cromar** Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:10 am

Copy of what I posted in the Halle tournament thread...

michelle88 wrote:
StrongerThanAll wrote:missed most of the match but came back on match point. does he no for sure have #4 for Wimbledon?

According to Twitter, yes he does.
Roger Federer beats Mischa Zverev 7-6 6-4. Top-four seeding guaranteed. No 3 if he wins the Halle title. Stan Wawrinka now fifth seed. https://t.co/IeeRaiL6mJ
— Stuart Fraser (@stu_fraser) 22 juni 2017

Top seeds are pretty much set now... Here is the list of the Top 16 seeds for Wimbledon, as it stands now (Live ranking).
For those still playing at Queen's or Halle, in bracket is their seeding should they win the tournament.

1 - Murray
2 - Djokovic
3 - Nadal
4 - Federer (W = 3)
5 - Wawrinka
6 - Raonic
7 - Cilic (W = 6)
8 - Thiem
9 - Nishikori
10 - Berdych (W = 8 )
11 - Tsonga
12 - Zverev (W = 8 )
13 - Pouille
14 - Dimitrov (W = 10)
W - Goffin
15 - Monfils
16 - Sock

If Roger wins Halle, he will be # 3 and Nadal # 4. The good news is that, either way, these two may never meet on the lawn of SW19 this Summer. And if they do, that means that Roger is in the Final of another Grand Slam!!

by tvradke Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:17 pm

Are these seedings basically locked in place now? Dimitrov making semis had no impact on his seeding? Also Zverev making the finals? Hopefully Roger avoids Dimitrov in R4. Not that I am worried, I reckon Dimitrov is the best grass court player in 13-16 pool and I would rather have that match-up for one of the other 3 top 4 seeds. Sock or Monfils will likely not even make it that far.

by Sponsored content

2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Status Graph - Pre-Wimbledon 2017

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Seeding Projections for Wimbledon 2017

Seeding Projections for Wimbledon 2017

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Seeding Projections for Wimbledon 2017

Halle - London Queen's 2017 Chart & Graph

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Wimbledon 2017 Seeds

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

Re: 2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule