2017 ATP Rankings & Schedule

MaxUS wrote:
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Otherwise, Roger needs a combined total of 600 (2 SF or 1 F) to overtake Murray for the #2 spot after Cincy.

Actually Roger would need a total of 605 points to pass Murray (7150 -6545). So just one final won't do!

Murray has 7750 points at present, but will go down to 7150 after Cincy as he will lose the 600 points he was to defend.

Cromar wrote:Actually Roger would need a total of 605 points to pass Murray (7150 -6545). So just one final won't do!

Arrgh! I knew there was going to be something wrong with my math! Of course, it was that I included the 10 points from Roger winning his first match in Montreal.  Who knew that two early exits this year would figure as prominently in the USOpen seeding as it did for Wimbledon?

As for the more important #1 after Cincy, is it correct that it's on Roger's racket so long as he wins the title in both Montreal and Cincy, provided only one is through a Fedal Final?

ETA: I didn't mean to contradict your post above, I actually started mine much earlier than when I published it, but I was called away from my computer in a case of postus interruptus. I wasn't gonna hit send, but I saw your post in a different thread and, my eyes must have deceived me, because I'd swear I saw a figure of 596 which confirmed my own number of 600 (since everything at this level is measured in multiples of 5), and went ahead and hit send with much confidence. Sigh, the one time that I didn't notice a notification of an intervening message, is the one time that needed it to avoid all this egg on my face.

Also, and more importantly, thank you so much for your beautifully clear and concise charts. We truly are spoiled with these gems that give us the means to navigate through the intricacies of the ATP Ranking system match by match.

Oh, don't worry MaxUS!  It's pretty tough to work with all these numbers, making predictions and projections, considering all the options and possibilities. I too have messed up at times, even after checking my numbers over and over again!

But the good thing on this forum is that most of the time someone is there to catch those little slips so that, as a group, we usually end up getting it right!

As for my post regarding Andy, don't feel bad as it wasn't there before!! I just decided to post a copy here, from the News thread, to have it on record in this thread. So, you didn't miss anything!  Sorry, I didn't mean to confuse you!  

With TFA gone, Roger has the #1 on his racquet. And if he has his way, then TFA may not get to #1 at all. At the end of this week, TFA will be behind Murray; and if Roger does well to earn a differential of 830+ points over TFA in Montreal and Cincy combined (he has already added a differential of 90 today), then he gets to #1 after Cincy. Now, TFA is certain to overtake Murray after Cincy, but with today's loss, he has definitely given Roger the opening.

Having Lost in the R16, Nadal will take 7555 points into Cincy. Assuming his form during the Ferrer match was Roger having a bad day and not an indication of his current general form, should he end up winning the title, Roger will take 7545 into Cincy. That's just 10 points fewer than Nadal who will drop 90 points at the time that the post-Cincy rankings are calculated.

At the risk of having gotten something wrong again, that means that Nadal would have to go deeper into the tournament in Cincy to reach #1, if they lose in the same round, Roger would be able to clinch #1 on 21AUG.

There's still a lot of tennis to be played, but he'll be playing the highest ranked player left in his half in the QF. We know that Bustagut took Roger to two tiebreak sets in Miami where Roger looked to be running on fumes all the way to the finish line but still managed to win. Form can be a factor but not necessarily an insurmountable one. Luckily, Roger's form in the 3rd set against Ferrer looked pretty good. We'll have to see.

Exciting times!

Lot's of tennis to be played and maybe an unlikely scenario, but it would be glorious to see Roger snatch the #1 ranking right from under TFA's nose

I'd love that -- and if it comes, it would be well earned.  But like you said, LOTS of tennis to be played.

(Posted in the 'Cincinnati 2017' Tournament thread as well)

I had this chart ready to go before Roger's unfortunate announcement, so here it is anyway, albeit updated, and looking awfully bare!  I thought Montreal was the worst I had seen, but no, it can get even 'baderer'!!    

Six withdrawals out of the top 10... unreal!    I am more than hoping that most will recover in time for the US Open (except for Djoko and Stan, of course, who are out for the season).


Cincinnati 2017 'Round-by-Round Ranking Points' Chart

The chart is sorted by the 'Live Rankings' at the start of the tournament (after deduction of the points to defend from Cincy 2016). Makes it easier to follow the points progression.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.tennisworldusa.org/news_amp/news/Rafael_Nadal/46527/the-race-to-no-1-between-nadal-and-federer-scenarios-at-the-us-open/

Before today Roger and Nadal were within a few points of each other. After becoming a finalist in Montreal Rogers points did not go up as I expected they would. In Indian Wells Nadal lost in the quarters yet earned 500 points for the loss which launched him to number one. Could someone please explain how that happened? thanks

Leafy - If you look at the Montreal and Cincy charts above, you will see that before Montreal, Nadal was 920 points ahead of Roger.

Roger had 6545 points before Montreal and finished the tournament with 7145, having gained 600 points for the Final.

Nadal, on the other hand, had 7465 points before Montreal and gained 90 points there (R3), to finish with 7555 points. In Cincy, he gained 180 points (QF), but having 90 points to defend from 2016, his net gained for Cincy was only 90 points, giving him a total of 7645 points (7555 +90).

The reason Nadal moved to No 1 after Cincy is because Murray didn't play and lost his 600 points from 2016, going down from 7750 to 7150 points, thus falling behind Nadal.

This will be their status at the start of the US Open:

- Nadal: 7645 points -180 to defend = 7465 points
- Murray: 7150 points -360 to defend = 6790 points
- Roger: 7145 points (nothing to defend)

So, Roger will effectively start the US Open 320 points behind Nadal and 355 points ahead of Murray.  

All is good!  

As to what it will take for Roger to take over the No 1 after the US Open... you can check the article posted by Tommymas1 just above, although I haven't verified the validity of the scenarios presented in that article (TennisWorldUSA is not always the most reliable source, but hopefully they got it right).

cromar, the one and only valid scenario - for me - is your round-by-round chart, that I wait for with joy.

:lol!:  It's coming!....

thank you for explaining that to me

A little discussed point here..... had Roger not withdrew from Cincy until after the first round (gets a bye and 10 points for the first round), he would be the 2nd seed at the US Open because he would be 5 points ahead of Murray and No. 2 this week. Hope it doesn't affect him on the draw.

Tommymas1 wrote:A little discussed point here..... had Roger not withdrew from Cincy until after the first round (gets a bye and 10 points for the first round), he would be the 2nd seed at the US Open because he would be 5 points ahead of Murray and No. 2 this week.  Hope it doesn't affect him on the draw.

Yeah, I had thought of that too, but obviously Roger didn't feel it was worth it for his back.  And what scenario would you consider as "affecting him in the draw"?  Being drawn in Rafa's half so they would potentially meet in the SFs versus the Fs?  That's the only real difference I can see.